04-26-2015, 07:23 AM
(04-26-2015, 06:40 AM)Phayte Wrote: At level 10, this upgrade gives a 20% chance for increased returns. I've been keeping track since maxing Sensors, and in 155 total expeditions I have only had 7 with increased returns (4.5%). Even when only counting successful expeditions, that leaves 113, or 5.2%, nowhere near what it should be.
I'm aware my sample size isn't huge, but the roughly 5% has been fairly consistent since I started tracking:
5 in 90 (5.5%)
6 in 114 (5.2%)
7 in 155 (4.5%)
I feel my sample size is large enough to discount 'unlucky' as an explanation.
Agreed, for a 5% margin of error, (which would be between 0% and 9.5%, so well below the 20% expectation), you can be 71.2% confident of being correct with a 113 sample size. If you accept a 10% margin of error (between 0% and 14.5%, still well below 20%), you can be 96.65% confident. The confidence with a 15.5% margin of error (enough to actually hit 20%), is 99.9%.
TL;DR: What you said is backed up by statistics, the odds of being wrong are pretty small.
SOURCE: http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html